Technological Forecasting

The chart is almost self-explanatory: starting from a corporate objective, and keeping an ‚ideal‘ concept in mind, alternative concepts A … N are postulated and relevant disciplinary areas are identified. The state of the art which is required in these areas to realise a concept is assessed, and time-dependent probability distributions for the attainment of the state of the art are estimated. Finally. These state-of-the-art probability distribu­tions are combined into a forecast of a specific concept attainability in terms of a probability range over time. An important part of this approach is the identification of critical paths (disciplinary areas, functional sub-systems, etc.). For this task, McCrory proposes a relevance tree approach ranging from the corporate objective through alternative concepts down to sub-systems and their predominant parameters-at which point an intuitive morphological approach takes over to identify alternative sets of parameters that form alternative sub-systems.